Rumors of War:Hezbollah and Hamas rocket threat outpacing Israel's defensive capabilities, expert says

Article Source: Haaretz.com

The Iron Dome anti-missile system in Haifa deployed in January. – Photo: Rami Shlush

Brig. Gen. (res.) Meir Elran of Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies says that as many as 1,500 short- to mid-range rockets could be launched each day in a war that would last for a month.

The Israeli response to the rocket threat still lags behind progress being made byHezbollah, Hamas and other groups, according to a report published this week by Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Meir Elran, head of the institute’s Homeland Security Program, told Haaretz that Israel hasn’t closed the gaps.

According to Elran, in a war that could last a month, as many as 1,500 short- to mid-range rockets might be launched at the north alone each day. And Israel would have to prepare for a war on two fronts – Lebanon and Gaza.

Elran says Israel has greatly improved preparedness in recent years both at Home Front Command and with its five Iron Dome anti-rocket batteries. But he says budgetary problems have slowed the acquisition process.

“Israel has still not made a system-wide decision to increase its investment in defensive measures, even at the expense of offensive capabilities. It still seeks to depend on American money. Israel will purchase a maximum of 10 batteries, when it needs double that number,” Elran said.

“If the IDF had invested even 5 percent of the resources in defense that it invested in offense, we would be in a different place today,” he added.

“It’s no secret that if war breaks out, the IDF will want to deploy the batteries near air force bases so planes can take off and land under rocket fire, and near national infrastructure. In the current state of affairs, we don’t have enough missile batteries to protect population centers.”

According to Elran, another weak point is the rate of Israel’s acquisition of protective kits against chemical attacks. “If the state thinks the threat is tangible, it should complete the protection of the whole population,” Elran said, referring to reports that only 60 percent of Israelis have kits. “If it doesn’t, that’s a sign it doesn’t believe that the threat is real.”

Elran added that the fact the government has not yet decided on a division of responsibilities on the home front shows “mistaken thinking by the Israeli leadership about the threat to the civilian population.”

On Wednesday, the Institute is holding its annual conference on the home front’s preparedness.

Home Front Minister Gilad Erdan, who will address the conference, has been fighting to expand his office’s responsibilities but has met opposition from Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was to decide on the issue, a decision that may be postponed.

Egypt's President Morsi Ousted in Military Coup

Rumors of War: Syria, Israel exchange fire on Golan Heights

Source Reuter by Dominic Evans

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syria said its troops destroyed an Israeli vehicle that crossed into its territory from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on Tuesday and warned that any attempt to violate its sovereignty would meet "immediate and firm retaliation".

Israel said the incident took place on its side of the Golan ceasefire line, that the vehicle was damaged but not destroyed, none of its soldiers were hurt and they returned fire.

The clash highlighted the potential for renewed conflict along a frontline that has become increasingly fraught after nearly four decades of calm overseen by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his father.

It also followed Israeli airstrikes near Damascus against suspected missile stockpiles two weeks ago, after which Syria threatened to retaliate.

Assad is battling a two-year-old uprising in which rebel forces, including radical Islamists, have taken swathes of rural territory and attacked army posts near the Golan frontier.

There are frequent reports of cross-border gunfire from Syria during clashes between army and rebel forces but Tuesday's incident was the first time since the start of the crisis that Syria's armed forces said they targeted Israel's military.

"Our noble armed forces destroyed an Israeli vehicle ... which entered from the occupied territories and crossed the ceasefire line," Syria's military leadership said in a statement broadcast on state media. The incident occurred at 1:10 am (2210 GMT, Monday), it said.

Shortly afterwards, Israeli forces fired two rockets towards a Syrian position, without causing any casualties, Syria said.

The Israeli military's chief of staff, Lieutenant-General Benny Gantz, said the Israeli army vehicle had been patrolling on the Israeli side of a border fence when it came under repeated fire.

"They fire on it once. They fire on it twice. They fire on it a third time, from a clear Syrian position," he said in a speech. "One time, okay. Two times, okay. Three times, too many. The position was destroyed."

Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon said: "Our policy on Syria is clear: We are not intervening there, of course, in the civil war ... But as for the situation in the Golan Heights, we are not allowing and we will not permit a spillover of fire into our territory."

AGGRESSION

Tension in the Golan Heights region has been fuelled by the fighting on the Syrian side and several recent abductions by rebel fighters of U.N. peacekeepers, who have monitored a narrow zone of separation between Syrian and Israeli troops since 1974.

The abductions led the Philippines government to say it was considering withdrawing its troops from the UNDOF observer mission. Austria, the other main troop contributor, is concerned that French and British calls to drop an EU arms embargo on Syrian rebels would render its continued presence untenable.

Adding to the sense of alert, the militant Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine said two weeks ago it was forming combat units to try to recapture the Golan, after Assad and Lebanon's Hezbollah said they would support such operations.

The announcement followed Israel's air strikes near Damascus against suspected missiles stocks destined for Hezbollah, which fought a 34-day war with Israel in 2006.

Syria's Foreign Ministry sent a written complaint to the United Nations on Tuesday, saying Israel's actions violated the United Nations charter and a 1974 military disengagement agreement between the two foes.

Syria's military command said the incident showed that Israel was supporting the anti-Assad rebels and aimed "to raise their morale which collapsed after the tough blows struck by our noble armed forces ... especially in Qusair."

Syria's army, backed by Hezbollah, has launched an offensive to capture the central town of Qusair, which has been in rebel hands for most of the two-year uprising which has now killed more than 80,000 people, according to the United Nations.

"The blatant Zionist aggression confirms that any violation, or attempted violation of the country's sovereignty will be met with immediate and firm retaliation," the Syrian army said.

Turkey Says a ' New Order ' in the Middle East Must Include Palestinian State

Israel Prep for Next War with Hezbollah

Source Associated Press

Matthew 24:6 click here to read.

REVIVIM JUNCTION, Israel (AP) — On a dusty field in Israel's southern desert, the military is gearing up for the next battle against a familiar foe: Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon.

As the Syrian civil war intensifies, military planners are growing increasingly jittery that the fighting could spill over into Israel, potentially dragging the Islamic militant group that is allied with President Bashar Assad into the fray. After battling Hezbollah to a stalemate in 2006, the Israeli military says it has learned key lessons and is prepared to inflict heavy damage on the group if fighting begins again.

The Israel-Lebanon border has remained largely quiet since that last war. But Hezbollah has since replenished its arsenal and has waged a shadow war with Israel around the world. The fall of the Syrian leader or alternatively an Israel strike against Hezbollah's other main patron, Iran, could spark another full-fledged war.

"There is an increase in tension because of Syria," a senior commander in the military's northern command said about a possible battle with Hezbollah. The commander, who traveled south to observe Thursday's exercise here, spoke on condition of anonymity in line with military protocol.

In 2006, weeks of Israeli air raids killed more than 1,000 people, including hundreds of Hezbollah fighters, and key infrastructure was destroyed. But the heavy onslaught failed to prevent Hezbollah from firing some 4,000 rockets into Israel, and the fighting ended in a U.N.-brokered truce.

While the truce has largely held, Israel says Hezbollah has systematically restocked its arsenal with tens of thousands of even more powerful rockets and missiles capable of striking virtually anywhere in the Jewish state. Israeli military officials frequently say it is only a matter of time before the next war erupts.

In the meantime, Israel and Hezbollah have fought a covert war outside the borders of their countries. In 2008, Hezbollah's top military commander Imad Mughniyeh was killed in a car bombing in the Syrian capital of Damascus, an attack widely thought to be the work of Israeli agents.

Hezbollah, for its part, is thought to be responsible for a bus bombing in a Bulgarian resort town last July that killed five Israeli tourists and their Bulgarian driver, as well as failed attempts to bomb Israeli diplomats in Thailand, India and Georgia.

Israeli military officials believe that Hezbollah, which is preoccupied with its own domestic problems and the precarious position of its Syrian ally, has no desire to reignite hostilities. But they say the Syrian civil war, as well as Israel's tensions with Iran, could easily upset the fragile balance.

As Assad's grip on power weakens, Israeli military planners fear that Syria, backed by Hezbollah, might try to open a new front in order to deflect attention. Israel also fears that sophisticated Syrian weapons, including a chemical arsenal, could be transferred to Hezbollah. Israel has all but confirmed it carried out an airstrike in Syria in January that destroyed a shipment of anti-aircraft missiles allegedly bound to Hezbollah.

Likewise, an Israeli attack on Iran would almost certainly draw a Hezbollah reprisal. Israel has repeatedly hinted it is prepared to attack Iran's nuclear installations if it determines that international sanctions and diplomacy have failed to curb the Iranian nuclear program. Israel and much of the West believe Iran is developing a nuclear weapon, a charge Iran denies.

Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of the potential link between Iran and Hezbollah.

"A nuclear-armed Iran would dramatically increase terrorism by giving terrorists a nuclear umbrella," he told members of the pro-Israel lobbying group American Israel Public Affairs Committee, known as AIPAC. "That means that Iran's terror proxies like Hezbollah ... will be emboldened to attack America, Israel and others because they will be backed by a power with atomic weapons."

Hezbollah's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has warned that anyone who thinks Hezbollah is vulnerable because of Syria's civil war is mistaken. He also said the group has all the weapons it needs in case war breaks out with Israel, and it would not need to import them from allies Syria and Iran.

"The resistance will not be silent regarding any aggression against Lebanon," Nasrallah said last month.

Israel is also taking a fiercer tone, saying it will act with far less restraint than it did in 2006, when it took out electric grids, roads and city blocks during the month long war that was sparked by a deadly cross-border raid by Hezbollah. Military officials say entire villages that host Hezbollah's arsenal would be considered fair targets.

During Thursday's exercise, near the Revivim collective farm, scores of Israeli reservists in full battle gear participated in a drill meant to simulate Israel's capture of a strategic hill overlooking a southern Lebanese village.

In the drill, three tanks kicked up dust as they charged forward and fired live rounds. In front of them, groups of soldiers lay flat on the ground and opened fire with propped-up guns as other soldiers stormed up the hill. Their targets were small cutout cartoon heads meant to represent Hezbollah fighters.

On a nearby Israeli army base, reservists have also been practicing urban warfare recently on a set made to resemble an Arab village, complete with concrete homes, narrow alleyways and mosque minarets.

Military officials say that while Hezbollah has upgraded its capabilities, Israel has also made important offensive and defensive changes since 2006, when it came under heavy criticism for its lack of preparedness and perceived sloppy performance.

They say the military now possesses sophisticated real-time intelligence and upgraded drones. For any potential land operation, it has fortified its armored personnel vehicles, activated a new tank defense that can shoot down anti-tank rockets and recently deployed "Iron Dome," a defense system that shot down hundreds of rockets during a recent round of fighting against Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.

Despite its arsenal and political clout in Lebanon, Hezbollah's maneuvering space has been significantly reduced in recent years.

Hezbollah still suffers from the fallout of the 2006 war, which many in Lebanon accused Hezbollah of provoking by killing and kidnapping Israeli soldiers from the border area. Since then, the group has come under increasing pressure at home to disarm. Though Hezbollah has been accused of fighting alongside the military in Syria, the group has largely been cautious with regards to the Syria conflict, knowing that any action it takes could backfire.

In addition, the group's reputation has been tarnished because its leader has supported Arab Spring uprisings in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, but has backed the Assad regime in Syria.

Possible Radical Alliance Between Egypt and Iran

Source Atlanta Black Star

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad used an Islamic summit in Cairo to try to thaw frigid relations with Egypt by meeting with President Mohamed Morsi and to stress Iran’s support of the Palestinians by meeting with Palestinian National Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.

It was the first visit to Cairo by an Iranian leader in 34 years, but Egypt downplayed the significance of the meeting, saying it was routine to entertain visiting foreign leaders. Egypt has many reasons to keep Iran at arms length, particularly considering how much of an international pariah Ahmadinejad has become, especially to the U.S. and Israel, two nations with whom Morsi is keen on maintaining cordial relations.

But Ahmadinejad was not in a downplaying mood, saying he wanted a stronger alliance with Egypt and even offering the financially struggling nation a loan. He announced that Egyptian tourists and merchants would no longer require visas to visit Iran.

This renewed engagement between the two countries comes as the White House announced that President Obama would be visiting Israel, Jordan and the West Bank next month, likely on March 20, re-inserting himself into the tense atmosphere in the region in an effort to restart the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, which failed miserably the first time he tried early in his first term.

Egypt, with a population of 83 million, and Iran, with a population of 75 million, are the two most populous nations in the region, but their relations were cut off in 1979, when then-Egyptian President Anwar Sadat entered a peace treaty with Israel and Iran was under the hostile throes of the Grand Ayatollah Khomeini. Over the years, the relations grew worse after Iran named a street in Tehran’s business district after Khaled Islambouli, the ringleader of the group responsible for assassinating Sadat. A mural of Islambouli added insult to injury. On the other side, Egypt offered asylum to the despised Shah of Iran after he fled his country.

In addition to concerns about how others would view Morsi’s engagement with Ahmadinejad, there is also the matter of religion. Many Egyptians still look with suspicion on Shi’ite Islamist Iran because Egypt is a predominantly Sunni Muslim nation. Also, Egypt is not pleased about Iran’s support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

As usual, Ahmadinejad blamed their frosty relations on outside forces.

“We must all understand that the only option is to set up this alliance because it is in the interests of the Egyptian and Iranian peoples and other nations of the region,” the official MENA news agency quoted him as telling Egyptian journalists.

“There are those striving to prevent these two great countries from coming together despite the fact that the region’s problems require this meeting, especially the Palestinian question,” Ahmadinejad said.

According to the Al-Ahram daily, Ahmadinejad offered to lend money to Egypt even though Iran is still suffering under international economic sanctions over its nuclear program.

“I have said previously that we can offer a big credit line to the Egyptian brothers, and many services,” he said.

Ahmadinejad said the Iranian economy had been affected by sanctions but it is a “great economy” that was witnessing “positive matters,” saying exports were increasing gradually.

“No change happened in the last two years but discussions between us developed and grew, and His Excellency President Mohamed Morsi visited Iran and met us, as he met the Iranian foreign minister. And we previously contacted Egypt to know about what is happening with Syrian affairs,” he said.

In his meeting with Palestinian leader Abbas, Ahmadinejad emphasized that Iran will defend the rights of the Palestinian people at all international organizations, according to the Tehran Times. He said that as Israel has become very weak, a bright future will await Palestinians if they remain adamant in their resistance struggle.

Abbas responded, “The Iranian brothers have stood by the oppressed Palestinian people under all circumstances and the Palestinian nation appreciates this help.”

Mideast Nations Views USA as Paper Tiger and Soft