Rumors of War:Hezbollah and Hamas rocket threat outpacing Israel's defensive capabilities, expert says

Article Source: Haaretz.com

The Iron Dome anti-missile system in Haifa deployed in January. – Photo: Rami Shlush

Brig. Gen. (res.) Meir Elran of Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies says that as many as 1,500 short- to mid-range rockets could be launched each day in a war that would last for a month.

The Israeli response to the rocket threat still lags behind progress being made byHezbollah, Hamas and other groups, according to a report published this week by Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies.

Brig. Gen. (res.) Meir Elran, head of the institute’s Homeland Security Program, told Haaretz that Israel hasn’t closed the gaps.

According to Elran, in a war that could last a month, as many as 1,500 short- to mid-range rockets might be launched at the north alone each day. And Israel would have to prepare for a war on two fronts – Lebanon and Gaza.

Elran says Israel has greatly improved preparedness in recent years both at Home Front Command and with its five Iron Dome anti-rocket batteries. But he says budgetary problems have slowed the acquisition process.

“Israel has still not made a system-wide decision to increase its investment in defensive measures, even at the expense of offensive capabilities. It still seeks to depend on American money. Israel will purchase a maximum of 10 batteries, when it needs double that number,” Elran said.

“If the IDF had invested even 5 percent of the resources in defense that it invested in offense, we would be in a different place today,” he added.

“It’s no secret that if war breaks out, the IDF will want to deploy the batteries near air force bases so planes can take off and land under rocket fire, and near national infrastructure. In the current state of affairs, we don’t have enough missile batteries to protect population centers.”

According to Elran, another weak point is the rate of Israel’s acquisition of protective kits against chemical attacks. “If the state thinks the threat is tangible, it should complete the protection of the whole population,” Elran said, referring to reports that only 60 percent of Israelis have kits. “If it doesn’t, that’s a sign it doesn’t believe that the threat is real.”

Elran added that the fact the government has not yet decided on a division of responsibilities on the home front shows “mistaken thinking by the Israeli leadership about the threat to the civilian population.”

On Wednesday, the Institute is holding its annual conference on the home front’s preparedness.

Home Front Minister Gilad Erdan, who will address the conference, has been fighting to expand his office’s responsibilities but has met opposition from Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was to decide on the issue, a decision that may be postponed.

Rumors of War: Syria, Israel exchange fire on Golan Heights

Source Reuter by Dominic Evans

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syria said its troops destroyed an Israeli vehicle that crossed into its territory from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on Tuesday and warned that any attempt to violate its sovereignty would meet "immediate and firm retaliation".

Israel said the incident took place on its side of the Golan ceasefire line, that the vehicle was damaged but not destroyed, none of its soldiers were hurt and they returned fire.

The clash highlighted the potential for renewed conflict along a frontline that has become increasingly fraught after nearly four decades of calm overseen by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his father.

It also followed Israeli airstrikes near Damascus against suspected missile stockpiles two weeks ago, after which Syria threatened to retaliate.

Assad is battling a two-year-old uprising in which rebel forces, including radical Islamists, have taken swathes of rural territory and attacked army posts near the Golan frontier.

There are frequent reports of cross-border gunfire from Syria during clashes between army and rebel forces but Tuesday's incident was the first time since the start of the crisis that Syria's armed forces said they targeted Israel's military.

"Our noble armed forces destroyed an Israeli vehicle ... which entered from the occupied territories and crossed the ceasefire line," Syria's military leadership said in a statement broadcast on state media. The incident occurred at 1:10 am (2210 GMT, Monday), it said.

Shortly afterwards, Israeli forces fired two rockets towards a Syrian position, without causing any casualties, Syria said.

The Israeli military's chief of staff, Lieutenant-General Benny Gantz, said the Israeli army vehicle had been patrolling on the Israeli side of a border fence when it came under repeated fire.

"They fire on it once. They fire on it twice. They fire on it a third time, from a clear Syrian position," he said in a speech. "One time, okay. Two times, okay. Three times, too many. The position was destroyed."

Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon said: "Our policy on Syria is clear: We are not intervening there, of course, in the civil war ... But as for the situation in the Golan Heights, we are not allowing and we will not permit a spillover of fire into our territory."

AGGRESSION

Tension in the Golan Heights region has been fuelled by the fighting on the Syrian side and several recent abductions by rebel fighters of U.N. peacekeepers, who have monitored a narrow zone of separation between Syrian and Israeli troops since 1974.

The abductions led the Philippines government to say it was considering withdrawing its troops from the UNDOF observer mission. Austria, the other main troop contributor, is concerned that French and British calls to drop an EU arms embargo on Syrian rebels would render its continued presence untenable.

Adding to the sense of alert, the militant Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine said two weeks ago it was forming combat units to try to recapture the Golan, after Assad and Lebanon's Hezbollah said they would support such operations.

The announcement followed Israel's air strikes near Damascus against suspected missiles stocks destined for Hezbollah, which fought a 34-day war with Israel in 2006.

Syria's Foreign Ministry sent a written complaint to the United Nations on Tuesday, saying Israel's actions violated the United Nations charter and a 1974 military disengagement agreement between the two foes.

Syria's military command said the incident showed that Israel was supporting the anti-Assad rebels and aimed "to raise their morale which collapsed after the tough blows struck by our noble armed forces ... especially in Qusair."

Syria's army, backed by Hezbollah, has launched an offensive to capture the central town of Qusair, which has been in rebel hands for most of the two-year uprising which has now killed more than 80,000 people, according to the United Nations.

"The blatant Zionist aggression confirms that any violation, or attempted violation of the country's sovereignty will be met with immediate and firm retaliation," the Syrian army said.

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